The macro-bear market

I came across an interesting point from Alex Becker on Twitter yesterday:

Gents : a friendly reminder. Crypto has never existed in a macro bear.  ​ All markets have been up only with endless money printing for a decade +.  ​ Citing how it behaved in good macro as how it will behave in a bad macro is foolish. ​ 2008 was the last time we had a “hard time”.  ​ There’s not a single chart ..not one..that shows how this asset behaves in “extended” hard times.  ​ Crypto has been fueled by printing, great rates and 100% easy money markets 100% of its existence.  ​ It now has none of these.  ​ Be wise.

Bit of a bleak outlook, but he makes some good points. 2008 was the last real financial downturn on a global scale. The US stock market has quadrupled in the last decade. Bitcoin wasn't invented until 2009, so crypto has only existed in a bull market. A large portion of crypto investors were still in school in 2008.

I don't have a crystal ball, but lots of people are predicting very little upward movement for the next 1-10 years. We don't know what that will do to crypto prices. If the overall crypto market is weak for an extended period of time, we can expect a few things:

1. Small projects with solid fundamentals, experienced teams, an actual business model, and cash in hand will perform best.

2. People who believe in decentralization and spend this time building will come out way ahead after this cycle.

3. People who are only here for the money will disappear.

4. People who aren't diversifying their investments and taking calculated risks will hurt the worst.

I usually stay away from price predictions and market analysis, but I believe it's important to understand the broader context. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

​

-Luke

​

P.S. If you want more of Alex's analysis on the current market, see here.